Author Archive
Market in UPTREND, March 30
We entered a downtrend on March 10th, but we have had enough positive market action over the last week to finally shift the market into a new uptrend yesterday Tuesday March 29th. The market shook off downbeat headlines yesterday as consumer confidence (data from the Conference Board) fell more than expected, hurt by higher food and fuel prices and concerns about the job market. The Conference Board’s chief economist said that this “will likely impact spending decisions.” What is important is not what economists like her are saying but rather what the market is saying, and the market is now saying (through my models) that it is in an uptrend. Act by it until we enter a new downtrend again. But use caution despite the new uptrend. Buy only the top stocks in the best industry groups as close as possible to proper buy points. Control your exposure by scaling into positions as a stock moves in your favor.
The Case-Shiller home price index was another data point that turned in its worst one-month performance in a year. The 20-city gauge fell 3.1% between January and February. “The housing market recession is not yet over,” the head of the committee at S&P said. Just wanted to remind you that the fundamentals still do not look good for the housing market.
Newsletter #1, 2011: Market in DOWNTREND – What we can learn from Japan
You have not heard from me in a while now and that is because we have been in a continuous uptrend since December 7th last year when I sent out my last newsletter. After more than three months of uptrend the market entered a new DOWNTREND as of the close of Thursday March 11th. I sent out my short notice the next day and this is finally the follow up newsletter.
We will cover the following topics in today’s newsletter:
- The newsletter is finally taking its first small baby steps into the www
- A new downtrend and what it means
- Emerging Markets gives indication of were we are heading
- We have just witnessed the fastest doubling in the S&P 500 since 1936! But then see what happened next…
- If the US was to see a repetition of 1937/38, maybe Japan could be a good place to put your money right now?
- Japan might or might not be nice investment, but more importantly we have so much to learn from the Japanese
- Everybody seems to be bullish on everything right now
- The US housing market does not provide any supportive arguments for taking a positive stance regarding the future
Market in DOWNTREND, March 11
You have not heard from me in a good while. That is not because I have stopped sending out my newsletters. It is rather because we have enjoyed a long and healthy uptrend. The last uptrend started all the way back on December 7th which was the date of my latest newsletter. I only send out my newsletters when there is a change of market trend. We saw such a change yesterday.
We started getting strong indications on Monday that the market would turn negative soon. The market action yesterday triggered new sell signals in the rest of my indicators “officially” putting the market in a DOWNTREND.
I will send out the latest newsletter on Monday March 14th, this email is just to let you know that the market direction has changed so you can make necessary adjustments to your portfolio.
Newsletter #12, 2010 – Market in uptrend from Tuesday December 7th, 2010
Today we have the current gloomy topics that we will dive into:
- Optimism reaches new highs – Not a sign of an ending bear market
- Spain will soon be needing a bailout as well
- In the US, as I have stated so often that everybody probably have heard me screaming wolf for several months now, the situation is not any better
- We know what the Fed has been doing lately, but it is more interesting to see what they are actually saying
- Copper as a stock market indicator
- “Don’t touch my junk” – How US initiatives for increased safety leads to more death
Newsletter #11, 2010 – Market in correction from Wednesday November 17th, 2010
I have limited the number of topics in today’s issue and made it into a little story for a change:
- We are in a correction, but finally we had an uptrend that lasted more than a week
- Business leaders are positive to the US and global economy…
- …but the Fed and its disastrous last policy show signs of desperation…,
- …with likely implications being those of a currency war – the fight for being the cheapest of the lot
Newsletter #10 – Market in Uptrend
A pretty short addition this time, but it does contain some extremely important information like:
- More (dark?) omens have been observed in the market over the past week
- There is always something we can learn from history – a small study of the crash of 1987 and 2008
Newsletter #9 – Market in Correction
Keep on reading to learn more about all these exciting stuff:
- Back into a correction after economic activity indicates that stimuli has not created lasting improvements
- The market just got a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, which significantly increases the likelihood of a stock market crash
- Housing market is really starts to impresses on the downside – again
- Nothing new with the US economy, it is still extremely weak; moving towards a broken back
- Bonds at record low yields, is it time to exit?
- As always some people view the stock market as extremely cheap, so should you maybe put your money there?
- USD is headed for a great run relative to most other currencies
- Gold looks like it could break to the downside, but still not confirmed
- Pretty close to 1929
- Talking about 1929 that was the start of long period if deflation, what is the current status on inflation vs. deflation?
- Hey, by the way, did I mention that the US will go bankrupt?
- China is heading towards trouble as well
- And finally, as always: These are my current main thoughts on our outlook
